摘要：
本文以2025年美日協定談判為例，系統解析川普2.0將「對等關稅」作為結合威懾與誘因的談判核心。美方對等關稅策略先以普遍性基準關稅與針對性加碼、高關稅配合壓縮時程與雙邊途徑施壓，再透過不疊加、上限稅率與豁免清單提供交換空間，並把國安、能源與移民/反毒等非經濟議題納入以提升槓桿力度。儘管其援引《國際緊急經濟權力法》(IEEPA)課徵對等關稅的權限備受爭議，相關措施在最終判決出爐前仍持續有效，形成「先執行、後訴訟」的談判環境。美日協定談判案例顯示，日本在汽車等重點產業受壓下，承諾擴大採購與投資，並與美方以行政命令與《美日戰略投資諒解備忘錄》落實15%稅率上限、特定品項豁免與履約監測；美方則藉此獲取提升關稅收入、擴大國內投資、供應鏈發展及與國安相關之具體利益。研究歸納，對等關稅談判實為「施加高壓→壓縮時限→取得重大利益後彈性處理」的一系列策略，對川普2.0而言，對等關稅是進入美國市場必須負擔的入場費，而真正的交換價值則在為美國擴大投資、採購、供應鏈安全與產業實質發展等利益。雙方貿易的產業集中度與不對稱程度決定主要貿易夥伴的受迫程度；能否提出可量化、可驗證、與美國國安及產業發展需求深度對接的談判方案，則是能否換取川普2.0下修關稅、提供豁免待遇與爭取談判空間的關鍵。
Using the 2025 U.S.–Japan agreement negotiations as a case, this paper systematically analyzes how “Trump 2.0” positions reciprocal tariffs as a bargaining core that blends coercion with inducements. The U.S. reciprocal-tariff strategy first applies a universal baseline tariff together with targeted surcharges and high rates, pairing them with compressed timelines and bilateral channels to intensify pressure; it then creates room for trade-offs through non-cumulation, a tariff ceiling, and exemption lists, while incorporating noneconomic issues—national security, energy, and immigration/counter-narcotics—to strengthen leverage. Although invoking the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) to impose reciprocal tariffs is highly contested, the associated measures remain in force until final rulings are issued, producing an “execute first, litigate later” negotiating environment.
The U.S.–Japan case shows that, under pressure in priority sectors such as automobiles, Japan pledged expanded procurement and investment, and—via executive orders and the U.S.–Japan Strategic Investment Memorandum of Understanding—implemented a 15% tariff cap, item-specific exemptions, and compliance monitoring; the United States, in turn, secured higher tariff revenue, increased domestic investment, supply-chain development, and concrete national-security–related gains. The study concludes that reciprocal-tariff bargaining is effectively a sequence of “apply maximum pressure → compress deadlines → handle flexibly after extracting major concessions.” For Trump 2.0, reciprocal tariffs are the price of admission to the U.S. market, while the true exchange value lies in benefits such as expanded investment in the United States, increased procurement, supply-chain security, and substantive industrial development. The degree of industry concentration and asymmetry in bilateral trade determines how constrained key partners will be; the ability to present proposals that are quantifiable, verifiable, and tightly aligned with U.S. national-security and industrial-development needs is the key to obtaining tariff reductions, exemptions, and negotiating space under Trump 2.0.
