中文關鍵字：
美中貿易戰；供應鏈；貿易移轉；新貿易理論；策略性貿易政策
英文關鍵字：
US-China Trade War;Supply Chain;Trade Diversion;Strategic Trade Policy;New Trade Theory
期刊及卷期：
遠景基金會季刊, 第22卷, 第2期, 第1 - 58 (TSSCI)頁
摘要：
美中貿易開戰已逾三年，懲罰及報復關稅已涵蓋雙方多數產品。雙方談判協議雖已於2020年初簽署，但拜登新政府於2021年上任後不但維持關稅制裁，美國在科技領域對中國之限制管制及競爭也日趨嚴格與激烈。在此背景下，本文由新貿易理論探討了美國啟動貿易制裁之原因及後續可能發展，並指出中國策略性貿易政策之關鍵問題尚待解決。本文另分析貿易戰迄今所造成之貿易移轉現象對於美、中及臺灣之影響、臺商外資調整產業供應鏈結構之發展，提出臺灣產業可能的因應作為。
The US-China trade war continued for over three years since 2018, with sanctions and retaliatory tariffs imposed by both sides covering a wide range of product categories. Although the US and China reached a First Phase Trade Deal in 2020, most tariffs have remained in place under the new Biden Administration after it took office in January 2021. There is also no sign of deescalation on US-China technology rivalry. In this context, this paper first explores the development and impact of the trade war from a New Trade Theory perspective, focusing on China's ＂Strategic Trade Policy＂ and the US's retaliation. This paper concludes that the outlook of the trade war under the new Biden Administration is not positive, as most of the issues that have risen in light of China's pursuance of its ＂Strategic Trade Policy＂ remain unresolved. Second, this paper discusses the implications relating to trade and investment structures and the subsequent supply chain re-configuration development, and offers some possible hedging strategies for Taiwan's businesses.
